I have been all over this YHOO - Microsoft fiasco over the last week. Highly recommending the shorting of YHOO anywhere north of 27.50 in the short term. As for GOOG the more trouble over at the YHOO camp the better the short term runs to the upside for GOOG. Straight to the point here ladies and germs.... BUY GOOG anywhere south of 573 for a few points to the upside as a fairly safe bet !!! GL and name your first born's after me !!

ALSO Take advantage of this whole Microsoft Cash back thing to pick up GOOG under 573. Enjoy a short term run of about 10 to 15 points from there. Trade ahead of the news kids and that news is MSFT's program falls short of desired levels. GOOG reacts with a better plan and executes in better fashion.

The news on the street this morning is all about the reply letter from Yahoo's board. Indeed this gives them a 2nd chance to jump on the box and make it clear once and for all that the angel which is Microsoft was not as solid in this deal as it hoped to make everyone feel. The bottom line here is that Microsoft realized that this was not the best venue into the web arena. It would have damaged both products and the decision to back of and use Yahoo's board as a scape goat was a brilliant move.

All that useless BS aside though, we are left with YHOO the stock. These two companies are not coming back to the table (YOU HEARD IT HERE FIRST). Eventhough I do believe that yahoo has a decent product which can eventually pull some rabbits out of a hat and blow up like AAPL did when it was in the teens. However this is not the time and if you want a multi year investment then you are in the right place. Should you be looking for a few solid points in the short term then I suggest going short !!!

Unless you are a buy an hold kind of manager who jumps at the opportunity to hopefully make a buck or two in the long run while maintaining a risk position which could easily turn $6-$8 against you. Then I would recommend mortgaging the house and going short YHOO here. The stock’s only reason to see movement here is the news surrounding shareholder anger regarding the MSFT bid screw-up. The day traders will certainly play the $1 range but a short/mid term hold definitely points to the short side.

Based on support lines and recent strong breakout below them, predicted price is 32.24 for ARW before Feb. 4 2008. Trading at $35.74 at time of writing.

Edit Jan 8 2008: ARW already at 33.32.

Edit Jan 14 2008: ARW at 32.00, passed bearish price target of 32.24.